基于18F-FDG PET/CT参数构建弥漫大B细胞淋巴瘤疾病缓解的影响因素预测模型

Construction of a prediction model of influencing factors for disease remission of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma on the basis of 18F-FDG PET/CT parameters

  • 摘要:
    目的  探讨治疗前18F-氟脱氧葡萄糖(FDG)PET/CT参数对弥漫大B细胞淋巴瘤(DLBCL)患者疾病缓解的影响,并构建预测模型。
    方法 采用回顾性队列研究,分析2021年2月至2025年2月唐山中心医院收治的80例DLBCL患者其中男性44例、女性36例,年龄(63.0±11.4)岁的临床及影像资料,全部患者均接受利妥昔单抗+环磷酰胺+多柔比星+长春新碱+泼尼松方案治疗,根据治疗结束后18F-FDG PET/CT结果评估患者疾病缓解情况,将其分为完全缓解组和非完全缓解组,比较2组患者的临床特征及治疗前18F-FDG PET/CT参数最大标准摄取值(SUVmax)、全身病灶的肿瘤代谢体积(MTVwb)、全身病灶的糖酵解总量(TLGwb)。计数资料的组间比较采用χ2检验;计量资料的组间比较采用独立样本t检验。采用单因素及多因素logistic回归分析筛选出DLBCL患者治疗后疾病缓解状态的独立影响因素,构建列线图模型。采用受试者工作特征曲线评估模型的预测效能,采用校准曲线和决策曲线评估模型的临床价值。
    结果 80例患者中,完全缓解组29例(36.25%)、非完全缓解组51例(63.75%)。单因素logistic回归分析表明,2组的Ann Arbor分期、B症状、国际预后指数(IPI)评分、血清乳酸脱氢酶水平>正常值上限、细胞增殖核抗原Ki-67(简称Ki-67)、SUVmax、MTVwb、TLGwb的差异均有统计学意义(χ2=5.922~11.716、t=3.399~15.095,均P<0.05)。多因素logistic回归分析表明,IPI评分(OR=2.804,95%CI:1.268~6.202)、Ki-67(OR=1.113,95%CI:1.011~1.225)、SUVmaxOR=1.120,95%CI:1.009~1.242)、MTVwbOR=1.113,95%CI:1.013~1.223)是DLBCL患者治疗后疾病缓解状态的独立影响因素(均P<0.05)。构建的列线图模型的曲线下面积为0.921(95%CI:0.853~0.988),灵敏度为0.918,特异度为0.836;校准曲线和决策曲线表明该模型具有较高的临床可靠性。
    结论 基于治疗前18F-FDG PET/CT参数构建的列线图模型对DLBCL患者疾病缓解状态的预测具有较高的临床价值。

     

    Abstract:
    Objective  To investigate the effect of pretreatment 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) PET/CT parameters on disease remission in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL) and construct a prediction model.
    Methods  In this retrospective cohort study, the clinical and imaging data of 80 patients (including 44 males and 36 females, aged (63.0±11.4) years) with DLBCL admitted to Tangshan Central Hospital from February 2021 to February 2025 were analyzed. All patients were treated with rituximab, cyclophosphamide, doxorubicin, vincristine, and prednisone regimen. Disease remission status was evaluated on the basis of 18F-FDG PET/CT findings after treatment completion. The patients were classified into complete remission and non-complete remission groups. The clinical characteristics and pretreatment 18F-FDG PET/CT parameters (maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax), whole-body metabolic tumor volume (MTVwb), and whole-body total lesion glycolysis (TLGwb)) of the two groups were compared. Counting data were compared using the χ2 test, and measurement data were compared via the independent samples t-test. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to screen for the independent influencing factors of disease remission status in DLBCL patients after treatment, and a nomogram model was constructed. The receiver operating characteristic curve was used to evaluate the predictive performance of the model, and calibration and decision curves were employed to evaluate its clinical value.
    Results Among the 80 patients, 29 (36.25%) and 51 (63.75%) were in the complete remission and non-complete remission groups, respectively. Univariate logistic regression analysis suggested that the two groups had statistically significant differences in the Ann Arbor stage, B symptoms, International Prognostic Index (IPI) score, serum lactate dehydrogenase level > upper limit of normal, cell proliferating nuclear antigen Ki-67 (hereinafter referred to as Ki-67), SUVmax, MTVwb, and TLGwb (χ2=5.922–11.716, t=3.399–15.095, all P<0.05). Multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that the IPI score (OR=2.804, 95%CI: 1.268–6.202), Ki-67 (OR=1.113, 95%CI: 1.011–1.225), SUVmax (OR=1.120, 95%CI: 1.009–1.242), and MTVwb (OR=1.113, 95%CI: 1.013–1.223) were independent influencing factors of disease remission status in patients with DLBCL after treatment (all P<0.05). The area under the curve of the constructed nomogram model was 0.921 (95%CI: 0.853–0.988), with sensitivity of 0.918 and specificity of 0.836. The calibration and decision curves indicated that the model had high clinical reliability.
    Conclusion The nomogram model constructed on the basis of pretreatment 18F-FDG PET/CT parameters has high clinical value in predicting disease remission in patients with DLBCL.

     

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